From food to inflation, The world will enter the era of “hemispherization” due to the Russia-Ukraine war
Although the Russian-Ukraine war has not yet ended, the trend of a world divided into two has loomed and is accelerating.
Under the leadership of the United States, Europe has adopted a hostile stance against Russia in a self-mutilating manner, not only giving up the North Stream No. 2 natural gas project, which has almost been completed but also refusing to buy Russian natural gas in the face of Putin’s “ruble settlement order”, preferring to pay Import LNG from the United States at several times higher prices. It can be seen that this is no longer an expedient measure, but that Europe is determined to completely get rid of its energy dependence on Russia.
Russia refuses to buy natural gas, oil, and coal in Europe, but there is nowhere to sell them. China, India, and Southeast Asia are all energy-demanding regions. In addition to buying from Russia, they also buy from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf. country’s oil and gas. Such a situation and trend immediately emerge the future global energy map, which is divided into two parts, one is Asia (including the Middle East), including the Asian-African plate of Africa;
The current dichotomy of the world is not only in the field of resources, but also in the commodity market: one side is the RCEP, which is led by China, and the other is the “Indo-Pacific Economic Architecture” that the United States is promoting; In the 5G, AI and new international space wars, on the one hand, the West has a temporary advantage in semiconductors, biotechnology, and green technology, and both sides are good at winning; and in the financial field, on the other hand, the United States has always been leading and even monopolizing SWIFT and the hegemony of the US dollar. On the other hand, it is beginning to challenge the “de-dollarization” phenomenon that is developing in China, Russia, Iran, India, and the Middle East to challenge the US financial hegemony; in the field of infrastructure, on the one hand, China-led and already leading the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, On one side is the American camp that wants to catch up; there are even the fields of values and institutions and so on. In other words, a new era of dichotomy in the world is indeed coming.
In fact, the era of globalization has not come for too long. I believe that many people are still indulging in the dividends and pleasures brought about by globalization, but they are rapidly leaving the world. Strictly speaking, in fact, the last era of “hemispherization” before globalization was not too far away from us.
The so-called Cold War period after the end of World War II in 1945 in the last century was an era of “hemispherization” at the very beginning. However, the former lacked competitiveness due to system defects and had to carry out reform and opening up. China’s reform and opening up in 1979 was the first step from “hemispherization” to “globalization”; after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, countries in the originally planned economy camp One by one, turned into a market economy, and the market economy unified the world. Globalization reached its climax after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. After that, it began to loosen and gradually disintegrate.
In 2003, the WTO Doha Round Negotiation suffered a major setback, which was the first warning sign that globalization with high purity was facing a bottleneck. The G20 with China and emerging countries as the core was born out of nowhere to “govern the world together” with the G7, and the new “hemisphericization” has begun to emerge. However, there are still three key nodes in the process from the subtle fetal movement to the current one: First, the “de-Sinification” after Obama took office in 2009 (constructing a TPP aimed at excluding China); second, in 2017, Trump After Pu came to power, he “anti-sinicization” (launched a trade war, industrial war, technology war, etc. against China); secondly, this is the Russian-Ukrainian war. Behind these three key nodes is, of course, the logic of the great medieval game of beauty that dominates the development of this century.
Now that the general trend of dichotomy in the world has become clear, and the world is about to enter a new era of “hemisphericization”, several issues will inevitably attract attention: (1) How to face it. How should companies face different markets and different industrial chains, and how should small and medium-sized countries choose sides or walk among them; (2) Will new international currencies emerge under the trend of de-dollarization; (3) Look farther, the world The general trend will be divided for a long time, and the division will be divided for a long time. After the world is divided into two, will it be divided again? Or what is the opportunity or logic to return to globalization after the dichotomy? All of these are full of suspense, but one thing is certain, the future winners must belong to those who are good at viewing the situation, sensitive to preparing for the situation, and good at leading the situation.